PCE Inflation, Treasury Yields and Consumer Confidence
By Jacqueline Policastro | Quincy News Correspondent
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Washington (Quincy News) — Market Recap
U.S. stocks closed modestly lower Tuesday as long-term Treasury yields climbed to levels not seen in decades. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 lost 0.2% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. The 10-year yield touched 5.293%, its highest since June 2007, while the 30-year reached its highest level since 2002.
Stocks pared deeper losses after New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no urgency” to raise interest rates again following this month’s increase, though he still sees another hike as likely if the economy evolves as expected. Separate data showed consumer confidence fell to 81.9, its lowest since April 2014, while job openings declined to 7.079 million in August.
Today’s Focus
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal expect August headline PCE inflation to remain at 3.7% year over year, with core inflation holding at 3.3%. Consumer spending is forecast to rise 0.8% from July.
The release will also incorporate annual revisions and methodology changes, adding an extra wrinkle to comparisons with previous months. Because the data cover August, they do not capture September’s renewed rise in fuel prices. The government’s third estimate of second-quarter GDP, currently reported at a 1.5% annual rate, is due at the same time.
ON THE SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2026
– 8:15 a.m. ET – September ADP private-payroll report
– 8:30 a.m. ET – August personal income, consumer spending and PCE inflation; third estimate of second-quarter GDP
– 10 a.m. ET – August metropolitan-area employment and unemployment
– 3:25 p.m. ET – Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the rural economy
– 4:30 p.m. ET – Micron Technology fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call
– Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET – September jobs report
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