Near 100% chance of tropical development in the Gulf; Isaias likely this week
By Sara Blue
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FORT MYERS, Florida (WBBH) — The Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracking Team is closely monitoring an area of interest, dubbed Invest 92L, in the southwestern Gulf. It has a near 100% chance of tropical development.
As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, the latest odds for development have increased to near 100% over the next two days. Surface pressures have begun to gradually drop as showers and thunderstorms have started to organize. Tropical advisories will likely be issued later today or tonight. The NOAA Gulfstream on the way to sample the Gulf environment today, and the Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are schedules to investigate the system Wednesday.
Given the setup in the atmosphere over the Gulf, a tropical depression is likely to form shortly. There is good consensus across the latest spaghetti models that this disturbance will curve north. Regardless of development, this does not pose a direct threat to Southwest Florida.
Even though sea surface temperatures are warm enough in the Gulf to support tropical development, high wind shear is expected to limit significant strengthening. If this were to become a named storm, the next name on the list is Isaias.
U.S. Impacts: Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to bring a heavy rain event to parts of the southeastern U.S. The earliest impacts for parts of the U.S. would be Friday. Those who live anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana need to watch this disturbance closely.
While this is not expected to be a direct threat for Southwest Florida, it is too soon to determine if indirect impacts are possible. It’s important to frequently check back into the forecast. Count on the Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracking Team to keep you informed.
What is an Invest? An invest is a shorthand term for an area of investigation. When the National Hurricane Center designates an area of disturbed weather as an invest, this triggers more data collection but does not guarantee tropical development. Tropical weather forecast models begin running, offering deeper insight into the likelihood of development and where a system may track in the future.
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