Treasury Yields Rise, Iran Talks in Focus
By Tom LoBianco | Quincy News Correspondent
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Washington (Quincy News) — Market Recap
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in roughly two decades Monday, pressured by elevated oil prices and inflation concerns, heavy government borrowing and a wave of AI-related corporate debt issuance. The 10-year yield rose about seven basis points to roughly 5.25%, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year reached about 5.57%, its highest since 2004.
U.S. stocks started the week lower, with semiconductor shares among the biggest drags. Boeing fell 6.9% after the Federal Aviation Administration said certification of the 737 MAX 10 would be delayed until the company resolves a newly disclosed flight-guidance software issue. The S&P 500 fell 0.77%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.92% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.67%.
Brent crude settled Monday at $105.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $92.60. President Donald Trump rejected a Tehran-backed proposal that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. and Iranian officials later spoke separately with mediators, but Trump denied reports that Washington was prepared to ease sanctions or release frozen Iranian funds.
Today’s Focus
Early Tuesday, U.S. stock futures were little changed, Treasury yields remained near Monday’s multiyear highs and oil stayed elevated at roughly $105 a barrel for Brent and $92 for WTI.
This week’s August PCE inflation report, September ISM Manufacturing survey and September jobs report could reshape expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase at its October meeting. Traders early Tuesday were pricing in about a 70% chance of a hike. Any credible breakthrough that restores normal tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would likely move oil, Treasury yields and equities.
ON THE SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2026
– 9 a.m. ET – July S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index
– 10 a.m. ET – August JOLTS job openings and September Consumer Confidence
– 11 a.m. ET – Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman delivers opening remarks at a virtual cybersecurity workshop
– 12:40 p.m. ET – Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on the economic outlook
– 1 p.m. ET – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated outlook
– 2 p.m. ET – New York Fed President John Williams participates in a discussion at the University at Buffalo
– 3 p.m. ET – Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on payments at Sibos 2026
– Wednesday, 8:15 a.m. ET – ADP’s September private-sector employment report
– Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. ET – August PCE price index and personal income and spending; third estimate of second-quarter GDP
– Thursday, 8:30 a.m. ET – Weekly initial jobless claims
– Thursday, 10 a.m. ET – September ISM Manufacturing PMI and August construction spending
– Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET – September jobs report discussion on the economy
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