State of the Union draws over $12M in wagers as prediction markets grow
Mitchell Kaminski
COLUMBIA, Mo. (KMIZ)
As prediction markets continue to gain traction across the United States, major political events like the State of the Union are increasingly becoming opportunities for people to place bets and turn a profit.
President Donald Trump’s nearly two-hour State of the Union speech, the longest on record, generated more than $12 million in wagers on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, with bets ranging from the length of the speech to whether he would mention specific words or phrases.
“The further down you got started getting a little stranger,” Geoff Zochodne, senior news analyst and predictions market expert at Covers.com said. “I think the one that was the least likely he was going to say was mentioning the word ‘Ethereum,’ that had to do with that cryptocurrency.”
The rise of prediction markets accelerated in 2024, largely driven by interest in wagering on the presidential election, an option not available through most state-regulated sportsbooks. Zochodne noted the odds on those platforms painted a “bit more bullish” picture of Trump’s reelection chances, allowing operators to take a “bit of a victory lap” after the outcome matched their projections.
“In late 2024, we saw one prediction market come forward through this process called self-certification, where it self-certified a contract for trading that had to do with the Super Bowl and that was a very big shift,” Zochodne said. “Then the new administration was sworn in. There’s a new CFTC now, and under that CFTC, these prediction markets have certified more and more sports-related event contracts.”
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is tasked with regulating prediction markets. Under the Trump administration, the CFTC has allowed platforms to operate nationwide, even in states that have yet to legalize sports betting.
As a result, Zochodne said the prediction market industry blew up during the past year, especially during football season.
That rapid expansion has created tension within the gambling industry and among regulators. According to Zochodne, some brick-and-mortar casino operators like Bet MGM or Caesars have pushed back, while online-first companies such as FanDuel and DraftKings have entered the space through partnerships and acquisitions.
“What they’re trying to do is ensure that [prediction markets] don’t run afoul of states where they possess online sports betting licenses,” Zochodne said. “They don’t want to tick off those regulators. So they’re trying to keep those types of contracts out of those types of states while still trying to gain access to the states that have not yet legalized and regulated sports betting. So they’re walking a very fine line.”
However, there have been growing concerns over insider trading. Kalshi has said that it has opened 200 investigations into suspicious trading during the past year, with more than a dozen investigations leading to active cases.
“It’s definitely something that people are becoming and have been concerned about for a while,” Zochodne said.
While no state has enacted a blanket ban specifically targeting prediction markets, roughly a dozen states have taken enforcement actions or filed lawsuits challenging certain contracts.
States such as Nevada, Massachusetts, and New York have pursued lawsuits, injunctions or orders to halt certain operations, while others — including Connecticut, Tennessee, Arizona, Maryland, New Jersey, Illinois and California- have issued cease-and-desist letters or faced related court challenges.
Missouri has not taken that step yet.
“I don’t think Missouri or Missouri regulators have taken any kind of legal or regulatory stance yet,” Zochodne said. “They’re still kind of in that wait and see process. The [sports betting] market just got off the ground, but it’s one to keep an eye on because ultimately you want to kind of protect what you’ve created here.”
Missouri lawmakers have filed four gaming-related house bills incldung a proposal to establish a “Missouri Gaming Bureau” to assist the Gaming Commission in regulatory investigations. However, none of them makes any mention of prediction markets.
The issue is also reaching college campuses. The Southeastern Conference requires member schools to use ProhiBet, a monitoring service designed to flag potentially improper wagering activity.
In January 2026, ProhiBet partners, including the University of Missouri, were notified that Kalshi had begun processing ProhiBet checks, raising new compliance questions as prediction markets expand into sports-related contracts.