Weather Alert Day: Snow exits Saturday afternoon, rain through tonight
John Ross
An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day is in effect for Saturday, after several inches of snow fell in the morning. Scattered rain is expected for the rest of the day before precipitation ends Saturday evening.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Montgomery, Audrain, Randolph, Monroe, and Macon Counties until midnight Sunday morning for remnant travel impacts following heavy snow in northern Missouri.
SETUP
Our first winter storm of the season brought several inches of snow to northeastern Missouri, with a report of 5 inches of snow in Ethel, Missouri, northwest of Macon. Randolph County also received 3 inches of snow in the early morning.
Warmer temperatures in southern Missouri kept precipitation as rain, where over half an inch of rain fell.
FUTURETRACK
Snow will track east of Mid-Missouri before lunchtime as temperatures warm above freezing. The day will still be wet with a cold rain falling through the evening. Flurries are possible before precipitation ends early tonight.
Temperatures will drop to the lower 20s by early Sunday, and highs remain below freezing in the upper 20s through Monday.
IMPACTS
With nearly a half-foot of snow in north and eastern Missouri, travel will be tricky for most of Saturday. Some improvement is possible in the afternoon, but wet roads will persist as rain falls through the evening.
Freezing air will move in once rain and snow end Saturday evening, so any roads that are still wet or slushy will freeze by Sunday morning. Bitter cold is expected early next week, with high temperatures in the 20s on Sunday and Monday.
CONFIDENCE AND WHAT COULD CHANGE
The system bringing this weekend’s snow made landfall on the West Coast Thursday night, and our weather data network will get a much better sample of data from the storm. This will reduce uncertainty in forecast models and increase confidence in snow totals and location.
We are very confident in the timing of precipitation, beginning Friday night and lasting through Saturday afternoon. There is also high confidence in the far northern and southern portions of the area, where snow is expected in northeastern Missouri, and rain is likely over the Lake of the Ozarks. The transition is still somewhat uncertain, and that changeover happens directly over major areas of Mid-Missouri like Columbia and Jefferson City.
There’s a scenario that may beef up totals in both the transition zone and the snowier side of the map. If the dynamics of this system are strong enough to create more efficient precipitation, the sublimation/evaporation of precipitation in the drier air at the surface could cool temperatures enough to help snow accumulate more effectively in spots. Add to that the increased snow rates, and we could have to increase totals.
Until it becomes clear in guidance if this will happen, we will stick with a more conservative forecast.
Make sure you have the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather app no matter where you plan to travel this holiday weekend, and set your location to get alerts and the hourly forecast.