KTVZ News Sources
BEND, Ore. (KTVZ) – Gas prices are ticking down in most states, including Oregon. Refineries are cranking out plenty of product for the summer driving season. However, the price of crude oil has climbed above $65 per barrel, which could cause pump prices to inch up soon.
For the week, the national average for regular slips two cents $3.12 a gallon. The Oregon average also loses two cents to $3.97 a gallon.
“Gas prices are on cruise control as the summer driving season begins. But if crude oil prices continue to climb, pump prices will follow suit,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.
The Oregon average began 2025 at $3.45 a gallon and is currently at $3.97. The highest price of the year so far is $4.02 on May 28. The lowest price of the year so far is just under $3.45 a gallon on January 2.
The national average began 2025 at $3.06 a gallon and is currently at $3.12. The highest price of the year so far is $3.27 on April 4. The lowest price of the year so far is $3.06 on January 5.
This week 12 Oregon counties have averages at or above $4, down from 13 a week ago.
Clackamas $4.03
Clatsop $4.06
Columbia $4.18
Curry $4.02
Grant $4.09
Harney $4.18
Jackson $4.05
Lake $4.10
Multnomah $4.12
Tillamook $4.12
Wallowa $4.07
Washington $4.09
Gas prices typically rise starting in mid-to-late winter and early spring as refineries undergo maintenance ahead of the switch to summer-blend fuel, which is less likely to evaporate in warmer temperatures. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to switch to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover in February.
Gas prices usually drop in the fall, due to the switch from summer-blend to winter-blend fuel, which costs less to produce. The switch starts in September. Many areas, including Oregon, can sell winter-blend fuel starting September 15. However, Northern and Southern California require summer-blend fuel through October 31. Prices usually decline to their lowest levels of the year in late fall and early winter before increasing again in the late winter and early spring.
Meanwhile, crude oil production in the U.S. remains near record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that crude production in this country holds steady at 13.40 million barrels per day for the week ending May 30. The record high is 13.63 million barrels per day for the week of December 6. Production has been at 13.5 million barrels per day many times since October. The U.S. has been the top producer of crude oil in the world since 2018 and has been increasing its oil production since about 2009.
The U.S. price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) had been mostly in the upper $60s to mid-$70s since last September, but crude prices dropped in early April as markets reacted to President Trumps tariffs and the impact on U.S. and global markets. Additional downward pressure on crude prices came after the decision by OPEC+ to increase production. The lowest closing price since September was $57.13 on May 5, which was the lowest closing price since February 2021. The recent high price for crude was $80.04 per barrel on January 15, which was the highest price since last August.
Crude oil is trading around $65 today compared to $63 a week ago and $78 a year ago. In 2024, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $66 and $87 per barrel. In 2023, WTI ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. WTI reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.
Crude prices are impacted by economic news as well as geopolitical events around the world including the current economic uncertainty, unrest in the Middle East, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is a top global oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas in October 2023. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ in previous years tightened global crude oil supplies, which continued to impact prices. But now the cartel boosted production by 411,000 barrels in May and June, and announced the same increase for July.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 49% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 16% is refining, 19% distribution and marketing, and 16% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. decreased from 9.45 million b/d to 8.26 for the week ending May 30, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 8.95 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline supply increased from 223.1 million barrels to 228.3. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9 million barrels per day, compared to 9.8 million barrels daily the previous week.
Pump prices will likely be fairly stable or even tick down in the short term, if crude oil prices remain in the low to mid $60s.
Quick stats
Oregon is one of 46 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a week ago. Oklahoma (-7 cents) has the largest week-over-week decline in the nation. Texas (+4 cents) has the biggest week-over-week increase.
California ($4.69) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the 17th week in a row. Hawaii ($4.48) is second, and Washington ($4.36) is third. These are the three states in the country with averages at or above $4 a gallon. This week 18 states and the District of Columbia have averages in the $3-range. There are 29 states with an average in the $2 range this week.
The cheapest gas in the nation is in Mississippi ($2.63) and Tennessee ($2.69). No state has had an average below $2 a gallon since January 7, 2021, when Mississippi and Texas were below that threshold. At the time, the COVID-19 pandemic drove significant declines in crude oil and gasoline demand in the U.S. and around the world.
The difference between the most expensive and least expensive states is $2.06 this week, compared to $2.12 a week ago.
Oregon is one of 25 states with higher prices now than a month ago. The national average is two cents less and the Oregon average is six cents more than a month ago. California (-19 cents) has the largest month-over-month drop in the nation. Florida (+9 cents) has the largest month-over-month increase.
All 50 states and the District of Columbia have lower prices now than a year ago. The national average is 32 cents less and the Oregon average is 19 cents less than a year ago. Maryland (-53 cents) has the largest yearly drop. Washington (-4 cents) has the smallest.
West Coast
The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with all seven states in the top 10. It’s typical for the West Coast to have six or seven states in the top 10 as this region tends to consistently have fairly tight supplies, consuming about as much gasoline as is produced. In addition, this region is located relatively far from parts of the country where oil drilling, production and refining occurs, so transportation costs are higher. And environmental programs in this region add to the cost of production, storage and distribution.
As mentioned above, California has the most expensive gas in the country for the 17th week in a row. Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska round out the top six. Arizona is 10th. Oregon is fourth most expensive for the third week in a row.
All seven states in the West Coast region have week-over-week decreases: California (-7 cents), Nevada (-6 cents), Arizona (-4 cents), Washington (-3 cents), Oregon (-2 cents), Alaska (-1 cent), and Hawaii (-2/10ths of a cent).
The refinery utilization rate on the West Coast jumped from 79.5% to 83.3% to for the week ending May 30. This rate has ranged between about 72% to 92% in the last year. The latest national refinery utilization rate rose from 90.2% to 93.4%.
The refinery utilization rate measures how much crude oil refineries are processing as a percentage of their maximum capacity. A low or declining rate can put upward pressure on pump prices, while a high or rising rate can put downward pressure on pump prices.
According to EIA’s latest weekly report, total gas stocks in the region increased from 27.2 million bbl. to 27.6 million bbl. An increase in gasoline stocks can put downward pressure on pump prices, while a decrease in gasoline stocks can put upward pressure on pump prices.
Oil market dynamics
Crude oil prices have moved higher this week in response to the trade talks between the U.S. and China in London. A positive outcome could improve the global economic outlook, which would likely lead to more consumption of crude oil.
Meanwhile, the EIA reports that crude oil inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 436.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.
At the close of Friday’s formal trading session, WTI jumped $1.21 to settle at $64.58. At the close of Monday’s formal trading session, WTI added 71 cents to settle at $65.29. Today crude is trading around $65 compared to $63 a week ago. Crude prices are about $12 less than a year ago. ($77.74 on June 10, 2024)
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